Prediction is hard. Especially about the future. That Yogi Berra gem proves you don't have to be an sf writer to get irritated with people insisting that you must know what's going to happen, but (as a sf writer), I can tell you that this is one of our main occupational hazards.
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If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2026/10/27/tied-to-the-tracks/#parlay-flat1/
